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March 2025 CADCHF Trading Review: Macro Drivers, Performance Breakdown & Strategy Refinements

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Caine M.
Caine M.

March 2025 CADCHF Performance: A Macro-Driven Success Story

March 2025 proved highly profitable for our CADCHF strategy, with the pair contributing 9% ROI (second only to GBPJPY) and a 62% win rate. This post breaks down our trades, the macroeconomic forces at play, and how we adapted to shifting central bank policies. We’ll also highlight critical adjustments for April.

Performance Overview

Key Stats (CADCHF Only)

  • Win Rate: 62% (23 wins, 14 losses)
  • Profit Factor: 1.82 (For every $1 risked, we made $1.82)
  • Largest Drawdown: -$38.60 (March 11th, post-CPI trade)
  • Avg Trade Duration: 6.2 hours (Scalping volatility spikes)

Equity Curve

CADCHF Equity Curve
Steady growth with two corrective dips during SNB-speak events.

Macroeconomic Catalysts & Trade Impact

Swiss National Bank (SNB) Policy Shift

  • March 5th: SNB unexpectedly cut rates by 25bps, weakening CHF. Our long CADCHF trade at 1.0273 captured a 45.3-pip surge (+$156.82).
  • March 21st: SNB signaled "neutral" stance, triggering a -28.2-pip loss on overextended longs.

Bank of Canada (BoC) and Oil Correlation

  • March 17th: BoC held rates but hinted at future hikes due to rising oil prices (WTI +9% in March). CAD strength fueled a 16.1-pip win on breakout trades.
  • March 25th: Canada’s GDP beat (+0.4% MoM) extended CADCHF rallies; we captured 23.1 pips with a trailing stop.

Risk-Off Events

  • March 11th: U.S. bank crisis fears spiked CHF demand. Our -38.6-pip loss reflected misjudged safe-haven flows.

Trade Analysis: Wins, Losses, and Tactics

Top 3 Winning Trades

  1. March 5th (12:00 UTC): +45.3 pips

    • Setup: SNB rate cut + oil rally confluence.
    • Execution: Entered at 1.0273, exited at 1.0326.
    • Lesson: Central bank divergence trades work.

  2. March 26th (4:00 UTC): +17.3 pips

    • Setup: CAD bullish momentum post-GDP.
    • Execution: Used a tight 8-pip stop to manage CHF reversals.

  3. March 21st (16:00 UTC): +13.7 pips

    • Setup: SNB neutrality priced in; CAD recovery.
    • Execution: Scaled in after initial CHF spike faded.

Costly Mistakes

  1. March 11th (10:00 UTC): -38.6 pips

    • Error: Ignored U.S. banking headlines triggering CHF bids.
    • Fix: Add news sentiment checks pre-entry.

  2. March 21st (8:00 UTC): -28.2 pips

    • Error: Overleveraged during low-liquidity Asian session.
    • Fix: Reduce position size post-midnight.

Data-Driven Insights

Risk-Reward Profile

  • Avg Reward:Risk: 1:1.9 (Targets 2x stops but tightened for CHF spikes).

Strategy Adjustments for April

Improvements Needed

  1. Fundamental Filters: Screen for SNB/BoC speeches and oil inventory data.
  2. Session-Specific Rules: No entries between 00:00–04:00 UTC (low liquidity).
  3. Stop-Loss Tweaks: Widen stops by 15% during high-impact news.

Keep Doing

  • Trend-Following: CADCHF trends averaged 4.8 days in March.
  • Oil-CAD Correlation: 78% of profitable trades aligned with WTI movements.

Final Thoughts

March’s CADCHF success stemmed from central bank divergence and disciplined trend captures. However, CHF’s safe-haven role demands sharper news awareness.

Subscribe for our April CADCHF trading plan, including updated entry triggers and macro filters:

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Upcoming CADCHF Reports

  • SNB Policy Preview (April 10th)
  • Canada Employment Data (April 12th)